Welcome back, Buffs fans, to our weekly preview where we break down Colorado’s upcoming matchup. This Saturday, the Buffs return to Folsom Field to take on Kansas State at noon Mountain Time.
Colorado enters this matchup at 2-5, having lost five consecutive games, while Kansas State comes in at 4-3 following a loss to Arizona State. The Buffs have struggled to put together complete games all season, but Kansas State’s recent injuries, particularly at quarterback, could give Colorado an opportunity to finally get its first Big 12 win. This is a winnable game for the Buffs, but it’s going to require better execution and coaching than we’ve seen over the last several weeks.
The Same Old Story Against Oklahoma State
Last week, Colorado fell to Oklahoma State 57-24 in what has become a familiar story.
Colorado came out looking like a completely different football team, scoring 24 first-half points and entering halftime with a 24-23 lead. Starting quarterback Isaac Wilson completed his first nine passes and threw for 222 yards before the break, while receivers Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. were making plays all over the field.
Unfortunately, when things started going wrong, they went really wrong. Oklahoma State outscored Colorado 37-0 in the second half, forcing three turnovers and completely shutting down an offense that had looked so impressive just minutes earlier. This has become a habit for Colorado. The Buffs have demonstrated an ability to compete against talented opponents for stretches, but once momentum swings against them, the team seems to fall apart.
That could be one of the biggest indictments of this coaching staff. Many have been loudly questioning the coaching throughout the season. But at this point, it’s hard to have not lost some confidence in the staff. Between the lack of improvement, continued special teams struggles and general mishandling of situations, including the leaked offensive game script ahead of Texas Tech. TD;DR- it’s been a mess.
Defensively, the Oklahoma State game shouldn’t completely change opinions of the unit, despite the hefty yard and point totals. Cowboys signal caller Drew Mestemaker made some incredible throws and reminded everyone why the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in college football, but there’s still no excuse for the complete collapse fans witnessed in the second half.
Scouting Kansas State
Kansas State has had an up and down season under first-year head coach Collin Klein. The Wildcats are averaging 438 yards of offense per game, including 217 rushing yards, ranking 14th nationally. Much of that rushing production has come from quarterback Avery Johnson, who has been one of the team’s most important offensive weapons.
Unfortunately for Kansas State, Johnson has been ruled out for Saturday’s matchup, per the Wildcats’ conference-mandated injury report released on Wednesday. Backup quarterback Jacob Knuth is also listed as doubtful after suffering an ankle injury against Arizona State. That leaves Kansas State potentially starting its third quarterback in as many weeks, with Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff among the remaining options.
K-State’s quarterback situation changes the matchup significantly. Johnson has been the centerpiece of Kansas State’s offense for several seasons, and losing a quarterback with his experience and rushing ability is a massive blow. Football fans saw the impact last weekend when Kansas State managed just 84 rushing yards in its 28-17 loss to Arizona State.
Defensively, however, the Wildcats have been impressive. Kansas State is allowing just 147 passing yards per game, ranking fifth nationally. The Wildcats also average over 7 TFLs per game and have been particularly effective at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That creates an interesting matchup for a Colorado offense that has struggled with consistency and protecting the football.
What do the Buffs need to do?
Colorado’s defense has an opportunity to take control of this game. With Johnson unavailable and Knuth unlikely to play, expect defensive coordinator Chris Marve to load the box and bring some exotic blitzes to make life as difficult as possible for Kansas State’s inexperienced quarterback.
Kansas State has relied heavily on its rushing attack this season, but without Johnson, it’s doubtful that the Wildcats will have nearly as much success on the ground. Colorado should have the luxury of committing more defenders to stopping the run and forcing Kansas State to beat them through the air.
Defensive lineman Lamont Lester Jr. is a player to watch closely on Saturday. Lester has recorded five sacks this season and has been one of Colorado’s most effective pass rushers. It’d be nice to see him and the rest of the defensive front consistently pressure the quarterback, force difficult third downs and create opportunities for turnovers.
Of course, this approach comes with some risk. Bringing additional pressure can leave the secondary vulnerable, and Colorado has struggled with explosive plays throughout the season. However, against an inexperienced quarterback, the Buffs will need to be aggressive to have a chance. If Marve can put together a good defensive game plan and the front seven executes, Colorado has a great chance to control this side of the football.
The Offensive Unit
Offensively, the game plan needs to be relatively simple. Kansas State has one of the best passing defenses in college football, which makes it particularly important that Colorado doesn’t fall behind early.
The Buffs cannot afford to get into a situation where Isaac Wilson is forced to throw 40 times against a defense that has been so effective at limiting opposing passing attacks. Wilson has shown flashes of talent throughout his three starts, but his inconsistency and inability to protect the football have been major problems. Despite the fact that he’s now thrown seven interceptions, I don’t necessarily think backup Kaneal Sweetwyne gives Colorado a better chance to win at this point.
I still have some belief in Brennan Marion’s Go Go offense, but the results have been disappointing, and Marion hasn’t provided particularly convincing answers when questioned about the struggles. Deion has consistently pointed toward quarterback play, but it appears the truth for Colorado’s struggles lies somewhere in the middle. Both the coaching and quarterback execution have contributed to this losing streak.
Against Kansas State, it’d be nice to see Marion establish the rushing attack. The Wildcats are allowing 158 rushing yards per game, which is a much more favorable matchup than their passing defense. Colorado managed just 56 rushing yards against Oklahoma State, and that simply isn’t good enough to win games in a gritty conference with great coaching like the Big 12.
Getting standing running back JaQuail Smith involved early should help Colorado sustain drives, manage the clock and take pressure off Wilson. More importantly, Wilson needs to protect the football. The Buffs don’t need him to make spectacular throws all afternoon. Fans need to see see him make smart decisions, avoid unnecessary risks and give the offense opportunities to stay on the field.
Four Keys to Victory
For Colorado to win Saturday, I think four things need to happen.
1. Aggresive defensive game plan: Chris Marve needs to take advantage of Kansas State’s quarterback situation by loading the box, disguising coverages and forcing an inexperienced quarterback to make difficult decisions.
2. Generate consistent pressure: Lamont Lester Jr. and the defensive front need to disrupt Kansas State’s offense and prevent the Wildcats from establishing their rushing attack.
3. Establish the ground game: The Buffs needs to run the football effectively rather than putting the entire offense on Isaac Wilson’s shoulders against one of the country’s best passing defenses.
4. Protect the football: This is probably the most important factor. Colorado cannot continue giving away possessions, particularly in close games. Winning the field position battle and avoiding special teams mistakes will also be crucial.
Prediction
At 2-5, I don’t think Colorado has much of a realistic chance at reaching a bowl game. However, I do think the remaining schedule is important for the future of this program.
If the Buffs can string together two or three wins over the final five games, Deion may be able to restore some confidence in his ability to turn things around. If the losses continue, the questions about program’s trajectory won’t quiet. Saturday presents a legitimate opportunity to get things moving in the right direction.
Kansas State is a talented team, particularly defensively, but the Wildcats have shown weaknesses, and their quarterback situation could make this one of Colorado’s better opportunities to win a conference game. I think the Buffs have a real chance to pull this one out, especially if the defense can set the tone early and put Kansas State’s offense in uncomfortable situations.
The Buffs have shown they can compete for stretches. Now, they need to show they can finish. If Colorado can get pressure on the quarterback, establish the run, protect the football and avoid costly special teams mistakes, I think the Buffs have a great opportunity to finally get back in the win column.
Colorado: 24
Kansas State: 20
