Welcome back, Buffs fans, to our weekly preview where we break down Colorado’s upcoming matchup. This Saturday, the Buffs travel to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State at 5:00 PM Mountain Time.
Both programs made major changes this offseason, but the results have been very different. Colorado enters at 2-4, still looking for its first Big 12 win, while Oklahoma State is 4-2 with one of the best offenses in the country. Colorado’s defense has played well all season and kept the Buffs competitive, but an inconsistent offense has struggled to finish drives and protect the football. Against an Oklahoma State team averaging 37.2 points per game, those mistakes could be costly.
Recap: The Utah Game
Colorado’s 27-24 loss to No. 11 Utah might look encouraging at first glance, but I don’t think the final score tells the whole story.
The Buffs were shut out in the first half and managed just 70 yards before halftime. They came alive in the third quarter, scoring 17 points and briefly taking the lead, but Utah responded and held a 27-17 advantage late in the fourth. Colorado’s final touchdown came with just over a minute remaining.
The same problems were still there. Colorado committed 10 penalties for 93 yards, and Isaac Wilson threw two interceptions. Utah turned those turnovers into 10 points. What stands out to me is that the Buffs actually averaged more yards per play than Utah, but big gains don’t mean much if you can’t stay on the field. There were bright spots. Running back JaQuail Smith made plays in both the running and passing game, and Colorado’s defense held a Utah team averaging nearly 43 points to 27.
Scouting Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has turned things around quickly under first-year head coach Eric Morris. The Cowboys brought in 91 newcomers, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, and have already picked up a win over No. 6 Oregon.
Through six games, Oklahoma State is averaging 517.7 yards and 37.2 points per game. Mestemaker has thrown for 1,940 yards and 16 touchdowns, with five straight games over 300 passing yards. He’s got help, too. Caleb Hawkins has rushed for 592 yards, and Wyatt Young has 561 receiving yards. This isn’t an offense where stopping one player solves the problem.
Those numbers don’t make the Cowboys perfect. Oklahoma State converts only 34.3% of its third-downs, and the Cowboys have occasionally struggled to finish drives, but when they do hit an explosive play, they’re very good at making it count. That’s the biggest difference I see between these teams. Oklahoma State has consistently turned its offensive production into points, while Colorado has struggled to do the same.
Protect the Ball
The Go Go offense has been one of the biggest disappointments of Colorado’s season. Coming into this year, most were excited to see a new offensive scheme with explosive playmakers. However, the Buffs have struggled to stay healthy and feed all of their guys.
The problem isn’t that CU can’t move the ball: it’s that they can’t turn those yards into points. The Buffs average 394.2 yards per game, but score just 19.5 points. Against Power Four opponents, that number shoots down to 13 points per game. For an offense that arrived with so much excitement around Brennan Marion, that’s not good enough. Marion has defended his system amid criticism, pointing to its success at previous stops, including UNLV and Sacramento State. Deion Sanders, meanwhile, has put more emphasis on the quarterback play being Colorado’s main problem. To me, the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Colorado’s newfound starter Isaac Wilson has shown he can make impressive throws, and there’s enough talent at receiver to put up points. But he’s also thrown five interceptions in his three starts. Against Oklahoma State, I’d like to see Marion commit to the run and give Wilson manageable situations. The Cowboys allow 151.2 rushing yards per game, and Smith is coming off an encouraging performance against Utah. Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. can make plays when Colorado gets the passing game going.
Still, the Buffs don’t need Wilson to throw for 350 yards to be competitive. I’d rather see a controlled performance with no interceptions and scoring drives, even if that means making the offense a bit more predictable. Oklahoma State’s defense is far from unbeatable, but it’s been effective in the red zone. With how poorly Colorado has finished drives this season, settling for field goals or turning the ball over could be the difference.
Can the Defense Keep It Close?
If there’s one group on this Colorado team that has been consistent all season, it’s the defense. The Buffs allow 357.2 yards per game and have recorded 53 tackles for loss through six games, an average of 8.8 that ranks fourth nationally. Santana Hopper has been particularly disruptive, with Gideon Lampron and Liona Lefau also making important contributions.
Oklahoma State presents a difficult matchup even for a defense that’s played reasonably well. Cowboys QB Drew Mestemaker has consistently found explosive plays through the air, while the Cowboys’ offensive line ranks among the best nationally at preventing sacks and tackles for loss. That sets up an interesting matchup with Colorado’s defensive front.
The Buffs could find success by forcing Oklahoma State into third-and-long situations, but Colorado also allows 226.8 passing yards per game, and one missed assignment against this group could erase two or three good defensive plays. More importantly, Colorado’s defense needs help from the offense. It’s difficult to keep an explosive offense like Oklahoma State’s contained if turnovers and short possessions keep sending it back onto the field.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Colorado 20
I expect Colorado to have some encouraging moments on Saturday. I predict the defensive front will make a few plays and Wilson will show flashes of what he can do. But I’ve seen too many of those flashes already this season without the consistency to go with them. Oklahoma State is a legitimate football team. The Cowboys have an elite quarterback, the weapons and the offensive production to take advantage when Colorado gives them extra possessions or good field position.
For the Buffs to pull off the upset, Wilson has to protect the football and Marion and the offense have to put together something closer to a complete performance. I just haven’t seen enough to expect both of those things this week. I think Colorado hangs around for a while, but Oklahoma State turns more of its opportunities into points and eventually pulls away.
Final Score: Oklahoma State 34, Colorado 20
